Should Multilateral aid have results?

Multilateral resource allocation: best practice approaches (Article – ODI Project Briefings 51, November 2010)

When DFID changes track on development, it is important to notice as DFID is one of the thought leaders among donor agencies. If ODI writes about it, it is important to notice, because ODI is one of the voices DFID is likely to follow. This is why the ODI project briefing “Multilateral resource allocation: best practice approaches for Multilateral resource allocation” is important. This is why the central thesis of the report, that multilateral results are difficult to quantify and we could settle for now for a transparent, quantifiable , auditable system, makes me uncomfortable. It seems an effort to plead for status quo. It outlines a superficially quantified and auditable system, but under the hood the data are subjective and debatable. More importantly, it sidelines the more important issue of results and effectiveness, because “objective measurement is difficult”.

Will this “best practice approach” lock the donors in a transparent system, taking away the pressure to move to better results? Will process and tools drive the donors for the foreseeable future instead of outcomes and results?

Governments have judged their private sector partners on their results and cost efficiency for years in a transparent way. Why would this be impossible for Multilateral Organisations (MO)? Choosing to fund organisations of which it is difficult to measure the results and effectiveness seems not a best practice. Perhaps we could measure the results by assessing the difference without funding? Is there another way? I think so.

The central problem with the thinking expressed in the briefing is the partnership approach, where an organisation is funded because of its institutional setup and not for its results. The funding becomes an entitlement that is not questioned. In a partnership approach, the UN-organisation has a role within the wider UN-system. This “ UN-system” however is a misconception: the UN-ecosystem is not a coherent system. To the contrary, each individual Multilateral Organisation was created by all member states because a certain distinct value, e.g. child care, or health standards, had to be addressed in its own sector, separately from the others. Those values stand on their own, and serve the global public needs only in this sector. In a sectoral approach or results based approach , the UN-organisation has a role within a certain sector (e.g. global public goods in health). You should assess the role of the organisation within this sector, and compare it to the alternatives in the sector. In a sectoral approach you are not expected to compare the performance across multilateral organisations, as there should be only one organisation in the sector fulfilling this role. You should not compare allocations among MOs, because they are in different sectors.

This choice between a partnership approach and a results based approach has important budgetary implications: in a results based approach there will be a funding balance sought among the different actors in the same sector, according to their contribution to the results. In the partnership approach the different UN-agencies will be funded from the UN-budget, and essentially compete with each other for funding. Within a partnership approach it is difficult to measure up which organisation is the most efficient; in a sectoral approach it is clear to most actors what global public good is needed and provided by the multilateral organisation.

For instance in the health sector, WHO is responsible for the global public goods such as the standard health procedures, but will also compete for operations with national governments, NGOs, the World Bank, and other UN-organisations such as UNICEF. Should we fund WHO for its “efficiency of procedures compared to the FAO” or should we fund them for the work they do in the sector?

Most Multilateral agencies have a creative approach to fundraising. While they pay lip-service to the UN-principles on funding, their fundraising is businesslike, and takes the reality of development funding into account. They try to cover all the markets:

  • Core funding is the bedrock of the organisation. This money mostly comes from multilateral budgets. Core budgets are supervised by the boards, and fund the administration, core responsibilities and whatever the board finds fit to approve.
  • Thematic funding gives flexibility within a sector. This money comes mostly from thematic funds from donors.
  • Project money can come from a myriad of donor budgets: multilateral budgets, thematic budgets, geographical budgets. The big money is in this line. A lot of small projects is together a lot of money. As administration is automated, the overhead per project is limited. The proof of this being that all organisations accept nearly all projects offered.

The objective is to maximise funding for the organisation. The board looks mostly into the core budget. Thematic spending is accounted for to the donor group that feeds this fund. Projects are on one by one accounted for. Most boards have no complete picture of what is happening. This gives management a lot of freedom.

The board members meanwhile, have seldom any management experience. The oversight happens mostly by diplomats who first defend the policy positions of their country and not by economists asking for efficient organisational management.

Another “best practice” approach

A results based approach to oversight on the multilateral organisations would start from a sector approach and define the role of the organisation within the sector.

Where the organisation really provides a global public good, the oversight should happen fully by the board. The funding allocation is very much like the funding for a government department in the home country: efficiency is a necessity, bud political priority and needs decide on the level of funding. Professionalisation of the board is necessary.

Where the organisation has a competitive edge for operations, they compete with other actors for funds. The picture is of course more blurred than this: they compete with the program country administration for direct funding through bilateral funds, but on the other hand coöperate with them too. The same happens with NGOs or the civil society.

It is in operations where the big money is. In operations results are measurable and can be compared with the results obtained by the other actors. Operations that can be done directly by other actors should not be single sourced to the multilateral agencies. By abandoning the push to form consortia and cartels in all areas, and stimulate competition instead, value for money would result, just like in all other government spending areas.

Compound indicators for meaningless conclusions

The five lenses approach, although it claims to be auditable, fails to be accountable as it fails to give “best value for money” being the measuring stick for government funding.

The five lenses measure clusters of related indicators in five different areas and bring them together in one evaluation framework. Eliminating competition and results from the framework means that funding will depend the quantification of often crowd-sourced assessments. Crowd sourcing can be useful, but is dangerous in areas where group think tends to occur, with development among government officials being certainly one of these areas.

The congruence with donor’s objectives is the first lens, and difficult to argue with. All donor funding should happen in line with the donor policy. If a donor funds against his own policy, well.

It seems incredible to find in the second lens, development effectiveness, only excuses for NOT measuring effectiveness. The lens is limited to process indicators like MEFF ( rule one of the logical framework: never make your means an objective) or MOPAN (crowd sourcing amongst donor diplomats). It could be seen as an insult by all the MOs who did work hard to get their indicators right and measure them.

What would be the outcome of the measurements in the third lens “role in the international architecture”? How do you distill an auditable number from these measures? It is remarkable how the role of “global public good provider” (appropriateness of the mandate) is mixed with the competitive role in the marked “alignment of activities with comparative advantage”. You would expect the board (with the donor included, and having a veto over all the decisions) to assure that the activities are aligned with the core mandate (I could expand on this one). These core activities should be well done, but without comparative advantage, because they fulfil a natural monopoly for the global public good. Comparative advantage is only relevant in sectors where there is competition, and not in the area where the organisation has a natural monopoly. Where there is comparative advantage, competition should play, and the funding should probably not be multilateral.

The fourth lens is also rather strange, as the potential for improvement is a reward for past bad management. Normally you would think past behaviour is seen as a proxy for the future. Those who reformed before have little scope for improvement. Moreover, it would also reward the organisations that can easily be instrumentalised by one donor, while the reform dynamic should mostly happen in the oversight bodies.

I am still wondering how scale made it as fifth lens. Indeed, it is more efficient for a donor to write 1 check of 1 billion than to write 1000 checks of a million, but the relationship with results is unclear to me. It is definitely easier to transform a small organisation than a big one. I wonder whether there is any link – all other parameters like professionalism and organisation the same – between size and efficiency. A small organisation with a focused mandate will probably be a lot more efficient than an unfocused sprawling dinosaur. However, a machine like WFP might be more efficient then an amateuristic outfit.

The total absence of the role of the oversight bodies in the document is worrying, and the prominent role given to informal donor gangs is a bad sign for the future of the multilateral system. The 5 lenses, without an assessment of the role in the boards, mean in practice that the donor and board member does not take responsibility for the management imposed on the organisation in the board.

Conclusion

The Multilateral Organisations have gone through important reforms, and some of them are more efficient than ever. Some Multilateral Organisations fulfil a central role in the development of the sector where they provide operations and global public goods. It is a disgrace not to reward them with funding in line with their results.

Sunday Paper

Some articles to remember:

It seemed like a good idea while we were at it: coordination instead of competition

A few months ago, Owen Barder wrote a ground-breaking article: Beyond Planning, Markets and Networks for Better Aid. As a development practitioner, being confronted with the latest ideas on best practices from ODI and the daily chores of coördination, there seems to be little movement towards a more market based approach. Does the following story seems familiar?

Programming for success:
A country has retrenched its administration heavily, and when the country gets clogged up with traffic jams, mostly because of the potholes, it finds no engineers left to advise it. Something must be done.
The first step is to bring the construction firms together and ask them to propose the legal standards for road construction.The second step is to ask the same industry to prepare an annual investment plan for road construction, to be proposed to the government. An industry commission is created to prioritize when the government budget is not enough. However, if the traffic jams don’t diminish, budget will rise.
In order to keep the road building effective the following measures will be taken:

  • All companies in the industry should get a piece of the pie. No exceptions made. No strong companies sidelining weaker ones.
  • Companies should have their own technical or geographical niche. As overlap is inefficient it will be eliminated, coördination at all levels will be needed to make sure there are no gaps nor overlaps.
  • In order to be sure everything runs smoothly, all planning decisions are taking in consensus among all companies involved. Work should be coördinated at all levels.

As there could be some questions on accountability, it is agreed that the different regions of the country will be represented in the respective boards of the companies, and the same governments can delegate politicians to sit in the management.

What is illegal in business is a good idea in development

The practices described above have been used in different sectors, the energy sector and arms industry most notably.

However, it is only in the development and humanitarian sector these practices are seen as conventional wisdom. In a business environment this approach would be illegal.
An overview:

  • The government has the obligation to follow up on the expenses made, to assure the products were delivered. This cannot be done without a minimum of technical capacity.
  • An industry writing its own legal standards or its own investment plan is a clear conflict of interest. Sitting on the board and on being part of the management equally.
  • A cartel is created to cut the pie, competition is eliminated
  • Within specific niches, monopolies are created.

Perhaps we should be more active in searching for alternative approaches to the current partnerships in development.

The Sunday paper

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Development policy and evolution: does the donor public request impact or action?

Owen posted a very good presentation on evolution and development on his blog. Indeed, evolution, like the market, is an efficient way to find solutions to complex problems or to optimize resource allocation.

The subsequent discussion on his blog raised a few issues I would like to expand on, in addition to what I wrote before on evolution in development.

  • The evolutionary pressure is being steered by the public perception. Public perception evolves too. However, I do think this pressure is for the moment rather away from long-term results and towards short-term visible activity. Sorry.
  • Evolution works with selection of the fittest, not by coordinating, clustering and evolving the un-fit. The inclusive narrative for better aid might have to make room for an exclusive selection process. (see also “what don’t make sense in trade don’t make sense in aid”).
  • The path dependency of evolution can easily lead to sub-optimal results.
  • Every evolutionary process creates dinosaurs: creatures fit for the world of yesteryear. Who is your favorite development dinosaur?

This  entry is on public support for development results.

Is the public interested in results? I would not think so: for the donor public the perception of activity is more important than results. Indeed, it is easier to look professional than to be professional. If the donor public doesn’t experience the quality of the services you deliver, it is not economical at all to invest in real expertise and real results when you can invest in faking expertise and fake results. Most NGOs manage to look trustworthy enough to part people from their money. Not all of them are sufficiently accountable.

When disaster struck in Haiti on January the 12th 2010, it took less than 24 hours for donor countries to decide to send their rapid response teams to Haiti for search and rescue. This led to major congestion at the airport, and some spectacular saves by white knights in shining armour that were documented live on television. There were more than 222.000 death and 211 lives were saved by the international and national search and rescue teams. This would be 1 per thousand. There are no data available to me about people saved by their neighbours, as the efforts of Haitians were very much underreported on during this crisis. Would Haiti have been better off it they used the airspace for bringing in shelter, food, water?

In November 2010 a cholera epidemic struck, making more than 1000 victims, while there was clearly no adequate health services or humanitarian workers around. Oh yes, this one struck in West Africa, after the flooding there. The epidemic in Haiti, at the same time, with a few hundred victims got international coverage and full assistance of the international community.

“The public is genuinely moved by the suffering and wants to support poverty reduction” writes Owen in his post. However, as they don’t experience the services for poverty reduction , they are tending to ask for the second best: visible action. In this context, as the situation is still catastrophic, after years of aid, the current “professionals” are clearly not up to the job. Support for hands on volunteers or stars is a normal way out. As is the loathing of the aid establishment. While serious evaluations of the Haiti humanitarian intervention are rather positive (for a once in decades type of event), the public perception is negative. The concern of the public that the money is lining the pockets of agencies and governments, is a valid concern, but also a typical populist issue. In domestic politics this concern is seldom alleviated by information on audits or results. You don’t establish long-term trust with the public on basis of bureaucratic requirements, but on basis of  a long-term open communication strategy, or on basis of a charismatic communicator.

A logical response to the search for public approval is to deliver activity: approve more projects, do more field visits as a minister, or create high level events,  where the stars and politicians from all stripes come together to vow action. This is exactly what is often seen as the problem with Aid. In this context, the plans themselves decided on at the high level events are not relevant, as nobody will wait for the results on the hot topic of today anyway. Activity is also about moving on to the next big thing.

While populism on domestic issues runs sooner or later into the reality of undelivered services, this feedback loop is nonexistent in development, as the taxpayer pays for services for people far away.

If I am right about the political economy of the incentives for a short-term or top down approach, than the development community must start changing some parameters of the equation in order to work towards impact instead of the perception of activity. Change the environment to create evolutionary pressure in the other direction.

However the current reality is not as bleak as we could expect, so some things must be happening that work in favour of the support for a long-term impact geared approach.

The different actors are no blind victims to the incentives before them. Apparently, a lot of them are moral actors. Elected politicians can inform themselves and translate the short-term populist concern in a long-term commitment for results. The same is true about the activist journalists and stars with a long-term commitment, e.g. as UN-agency Ambassadors.

Like piloted by some of the more successful NGOs or agencies, there is a need for a professional outreach to the public. It seems to me that only approaches with this kind of outreach might have a long-term survival chance in the political arena. Even policies that are hugely successful, if they don’t communicate well, might be doomed.
This outreach should put the ad hoc issues and in a wider context. The approach of UNICEF or MSF comes to mind as successful to put a broad results based vision on the agenda. Meanwhile the donor governments seem to be hugely inefficient in explaining their policies to the wider public. The whole Paris agenda seems to be mostly ignored by the public, what seems to be a bad basis for long-term planning.